Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 0.277706 0.320832 0.367799 0.422663 0.484904 0.553231 0.633826
2025-07-06 0.204867 0.258566 0.321771 0.401345 0.498513 0.612950 0.757551
2025-07-13 0.164460 0.225335 0.302299 0.406018 0.541311 0.710875 0.938421
2025-07-20 0.129369 0.192147 0.277243 0.399684 0.569733 0.795670 1.116290
2025-07-27 0.105525 0.169436 0.262050 0.403837 0.612653 0.905495 1.342887
2025-08-03 0.087319 0.151235 0.250018 0.410463 0.660193 1.028509 1.605283
2025-08-10 0.067734 0.126785 0.224220 0.392173 0.668361 1.096407 1.798389
2025-08-17 0.051687 0.104596 0.197780 0.368098 0.663598 1.144021 1.967492
2025-08-24 0.041484 0.090435 0.182134 0.359189 0.682011 1.230419 2.209010
2025-08-31 0.033430 0.078427 0.167960 0.350260 0.698844 1.316249 2.460571
2025-09-07 0.028588 0.071795 0.162682 0.356925 0.744670 1.457618 2.824452
2025-09-14 0.022716 0.061371 0.147630 0.341630 0.746674 1.520851 3.057598
2025-09-21 0.018298 0.053296 0.136252 0.332706 0.761750 1.614009 3.364884
2025-09-28 0.014623 0.045968 0.124904 0.321683 0.770923 1.697559 3.665857
2025-10-05 0.012693 0.042708 0.122452 0.330390 0.823742 1.874963 4.172718
2025-10-12 0.010608 0.038332 0.116215 0.328947 0.853975 2.010263 4.611903
2025-10-19 0.009186 0.035501 0.113381 0.335449 0.903752 2.193683 5.173362
2025-10-26 0.008027 0.033129 0.111264 0.343457 0.958579 2.395292 5.797423
2025-11-02 0.006431 0.028626 0.101815 0.329733 0.957470 2.471260 6.156189
2025-11-09 0.005016 0.024177 0.091270 0.310535 0.938944 2.504382 6.422811
2025-11-16 0.004137 0.021449 0.085458 0.303935 0.952716 2.616144 6.883631
2025-11-23 0.003410 0.019021 0.079958 0.297055 0.964564 2.724712 7.349414
2025-11-30 0.003006 0.017871 0.078675 0.303414 1.015202 2.937266 8.090127